What Saanich's Tillicum-Burnside Plan Means for Home Values in Saanich West

Picture two nearly identical bungalows in Saanich West, three streets apart, both built the same decade, both listed at the same price. Pull up the map Saanich planners have been circulating since spring, though, and only one of those lots sits inside a proposed growth corridor. Nothing about either house has changed. No rezoning has passed. But one of those addresses could plausibly support a duplex or a stacked triplex someday, and the other one, sitting just outside the drawn line, almost certainly can't. That gap in what a lot could become, not what it currently is, is not showing up in any comparable sale yet. It's sitting quietly inside a draft document at Saanich municipal hall.

That document is the Tillicum-Burnside Plan, and it's the reason two homes that look the same on a listing sheet may already be worth different things to different buyers.

A 30-year plan still being drawn in pencil

Council endorsed a formal terms of reference for the study in November 2024, committing roughly $250,000 to an 18-month land-use and transportation review of the area bordered by the Gorge Waterway to the south, the Trans-Canada Highway to the north, Harriet Road to the east, and Cuthbert Holmes Park and Tillicum Centre to the west. That study wrapped roughly on schedule. Staff brought a draft plan to council on April 28, 2026, and council voted unanimously to advance it into public consultation.

It didn't go smoothly. The Gorge Tillicum Community Association had already sent a letter warning it might withdraw from the process entirely. Association president Vera Wynn-Williams told council directly:

"We do not believe this draft plan, in its current form, should be sent to public consultation."

Councillor Susan Brice said she was "quite distressed" reading the letter ahead of the meeting. Saanich's manager of community planning, Cam Scott, pushed back on part of the concern, telling council the density along the newly designated corridors "is very similar to small-scale multi-unit housing that is already in the neighbourhood," and that some of the alarm stemmed from land-use maps being "perceived as being higher density than they are." Council still directed staff to sit down with the association before the next round of engagement.

What the draft actually allows, and where

The headline number is 18 storeys near the Tillicum and Burnside roads intersection. That's real, and it's the tallest anything gets under the current draft. Away from that single node, the plan leans toward missing-middle housing along the Gorge, Burnside and Tillicum road corridors, plus a potential master development plan for Tillicum Centre itself, the 476,000-square-foot mall on 29.5 acres already designated a Major Centre in Saanich's Official Community Plan and anchored by Save-On-Foods, London Drugs, Winners and the SilverCity cinema. The draft also calls for a continuous waterfront trail, better access to the Gorge Waterway and Curtis Point, and a new greenway connection along Millgrove and Seaton Streets.

Two of the maps illustrating that vision were revised before the second round of engagement launched, after several councillors worried the color-coding could be read as promising more density than the policy language actually supported. Councillor Colin Plant put the limits plainly: neighbourhood plans are "only a vision of what may be possible and do not automatically result in change," and outside of small-scale multi-unit projects, every rezoning application under this plan still has to come back to council for a vote. Mayor Dean Murdock was blunter about why the district was being so careful with the maps this time, referencing Saanich's more contentious Quadra-McKenzie planning process: "the lessons of Quadra and McKenzie weigh heavy on council."

The pricing gap that shows up before a single vote

Here's the part that matters if you're actually comparing homes right now instead of watching council meetings for fun.

Appraisers and most buyers price a house based on what it is today. But land assemblers, builders and patient investors don't wait for a plan to become a bylaw. They model redevelopment potential off the draft maps years ahead of adoption, because the margin in development often comes precisely from buying before entitlement is locked in, not after. A single-family lot sitting inside a Tillicum-Burnside corridor or village designation, particularly anything within easy walking distance of the Tillicum-Burnside intersection or fronting Gorge, Burnside or Tillicum roads, can already be worth more to someone modeling three decades of zoning possibility than to a family simply looking for a place to live. That premium won't appear in the Victoria Real Estate Board's published benchmark, because the benchmark is built from completed sales of existing housing stock, not from speculative land value. It only shows up when an offer gets structured around what a parcel could become.

That gap matters more right now because the broader market gives it room to be visible. The Victoria Real Estate Board's July 2026 statistics show the Core single-family benchmark easing 2.8 percent year over year to $1,311,000, and the Core condo benchmark down 2.2 percent to $548,600. Region by region, the same board's statistics package shows a broad, orderly softening rather than a sharp correction:

In a market where nearly every region is drifting sideways or down, a lot with genuine redevelopment upside stands out more, not less. It's one of the few places where a buyer can still find upward pressure on price, and right now that pressure is concentrated in a fairly narrow band of Saanich West parcels defined by lines on a map that hasn't been adopted yet.

That window has been open for a while and isn't closing soon. Engagement on the earlier version of the plan ran from March through July 2025 and drew nearly 900 participants. The second round launched May 13, 2026, with open houses at the Burnside Lawn Bowling Club, Tillicum Community School and Gorge Pavilion, followed by pop-up sessions at the Gorge Farmers Market in late June and early July. The online survey was extended to July 30, 2026. Saanich staff expect to bring a refined version back to council for consideration late this year, with possible adoption in early 2027, meaning the uncertainty that creates this pricing gap likely persists for well over a year before it even reaches the point where individual rezoning applications, each requiring its own council vote, could begin.

What this means if you're comparing Saanich West to other neighborhoods

• If you're buying to live in the home long term, plan boundaries matter less for your day-to-day experience but more for what your street looks like in fifteen years. A lot outside any corridor designation is likely to stay quieter for longer. A lot inside one may see more construction, more traffic pattern changes, and eventually more neighbors.
• If you're comparing Saanich West's numbers against the Westshore or the Peninsula, remember the district-wide averages don't capture this. A specific street inside a draft corridor can behave very differently from what the regional benchmark suggests, in either direction.
• If you're selling near the plan's boundary, ask whether your specific parcel falls inside a corridor, village or centre designation on the current draft maps before setting your price expectations. A buyer doing their own diligence may already be pricing in upside you haven't accounted for.
• If you're buying speculatively, hold onto Colin Plant's point: a neighbourhood plan is a vision, not an entitlement. Rezoning still requires a council vote outside the small-scale multi-unit carve-out. Paying today for tomorrow's zoning is a bet on a political outcome, not a locked-in gain.

The waterway doesn't wait on zoning maps

Whatever council eventually decides about height and density, some things in this stretch of Saanich West aren't up for a vote. The Gorge Waterway Park runs 1.7 kilometres between Tillicum and Admirals roads, home to the Victoria Canoe and Kayak Club, a public boat launch, and the reversing falls under the Tillicum Bridge. A portion of that shoreline sits within the Victoria Harbour Migratory Bird Sanctuary, a federal designation that limits what happens along the water regardless of what Saanich's own land-use plan eventually allows. That's worth knowing if a corridor designation on a map makes a waterfront-adjacent lot look more valuable than it actually is once federal shoreline rules are factored in.

Common questions

Is the Tillicum-Burnside Plan approved yet? No. As of August 2026 it remains a draft. Council directed staff to refine it based on the current round of feedback, with a return to council expected later this year and possible adoption in early 2027.

Could my house near Tillicum become a highrise? Only if it sits within the specific corridor around the Tillicum and Burnside intersection, and even then a builder would still need to bring a rezoning application back to council for an actual vote, the same process any other rezoning in Saanich follows outside the small-scale multi-unit exemption.

When will buyers and sellers have certainty? Not soon. Between the refined plan going to council in late 2026, potential adoption in early 2027, and the fact that individual rezoning applications still require their own separate approvals after that, this is a multi-year process, not a single decision point.

If you're weighing a purchase or a sale anywhere along the Gorge, Burnside or Tillicum corridors, the map matters as much as the listing. Kash Burley can walk you through exactly where a specific property sits relative to the draft plan boundaries before you make an offer or set an asking price. Get your free home valuation and find out what your Saanich West property is actually worth right now, plan or no plan.